Global Metallics Balances

Global Metallics Balances 2009 provides a deeper understanding and insight into the future supply/demand balances of respective steelmakers' metallic raw materials. Our 2009 report offers new perspectives and new conclusions.  In the late 1990s, the GMB sustem was indicating that obsolete steel scrap and perhaps blast furnace capacity could be in short supply in the near futures.  From 2003 to mid-2008, our shortage forecasts were vindicated as there was a tightness of metallics and record peak prices.  However, this may no longer be the case in light of the global economic downturn of 2009.  Our GMB 2009 analysis has led us to reverse our prior positions, and we now expect steelmakers' metallics to be in oversupply for the next several years.

Accounting for the expected collapse in steel demand and output in 2009 and only a moderate recovery in 2010, outside of China, we see far reaching consequences in taking the analysis out to 2018.  For example, in 2008, the ratio of obsolete scrap requirement to th estimated available average 10 to 40 year old scrap resevoir was over 0.97.  In 2009, this ratio is forecast to drop to just 0.71.  The implications are for much lower scrap prices in the future and possibly a less favorable outlook for the competitive position of the integrated mills.

Global Metallics Balances 2009 includes a 200-line metllics balance system for 56 countries from 1975 to 2018, which is aggregated into regional and global summaries, along with extensive graphics illustrating the forces at work.  The model contains assumptions on steel demand and production by country; crude steel production by furnace type; foundry production; pig iron production; usage of metallics; generation rates for new, home and obsolete steel scrap; and recovery rates of obsolete steel scrap from the reservoir.

The World Steel Dynamics staff is available to answer questions and help subscribers use the system for their particular needs. Global Metallics Balances 2009 is available for $10,000 to subscribers and $15,000 to others.  For an additional $1,000 to subscribers and $2,000 to others, we will include the Steel Product Matrix Forecast report (normally at $5,000), which is tied into the assumptions in the GMB.